Cross-Border Banditry and the Erosion of Regional Stability in the Sahel: Evidence from Zamfara State, Nigeria
Abstract
Cross-border banditry has emerged as a significant security challenge in the Sahel, where porous borders, illicit arms flow, weak border governance, and limited regional security cooperation have created conditions conducive to transnational criminal activities. This study examines the relationship between cross-border banditry and the erosion of regional stability in the Sahel, using Zamfara State in northwestern Nigeria as a case study. Guided by Security Complex Theory, the study adopts a quantitative research design and analyses survey data obtained from 114 valid respondents selected from a target population comprising security officials, community leaders, academics, civil society actors, and affected community members. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson Product Moment Correlation, and Chi-square tests at the 0.05 level of significance. The findings reveal a strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between cross-border banditry and regional insecurity in the Sahel (r = 0.71, p < 0.001). The analysis further establishes that banditry and cross-border insecurity have statistically significant implications for regional stability (χ² = 53.17, df = 3, p < 0.001). The findings indicate that porous borders, illicit arms trafficking, weak border surveillance, and inadequate regional security cooperation contribute to the transnational character of banditry and its wider security consequences. The study argues that the persistence of banditry in Zamfara should be understood as part of an interconnected regional security complex rather than as an isolated domestic criminal problem. It recommends strengthened border governance, intelligence sharing, coordinated regional security operations, and greater institutional cooperation among Nigeria and neighbouring Sahelian states. The study contributes empirical evidence to debates on transnational insecurity by demonstrating how localized banditry can generate wider consequences for regional stability.
